The dollar started September without moving too far from the low levels observed in August. On Thursday, the exchange rate remained relatively stable around 3,140 pesos, a price similar to that seen on Wednesday, and traded between a minimum of 3,130 and a maximum of 3,159.8 pesos.
That relative calm, however, does not mean that the US currency has a clear path to continue falling. After approaching 3,000 pesos in the eighth month of 2026, several of the forces that drove its strong appreciation are beginning to find counterweights, among these, doubts about the country’s fiscal accounts, a lower immediate availability of dollars in the market, and a less favorable international scenario could put a brake on further declines.
Nor does a scenario of a dollar surge seem to be shaping up for now. High interest rates in Colombia continue to make investments in pesos attractive, and currency flows continue to favor the local currency. Therefore, the available analyses point more towards a September of movements in both directions than towards a linear trend.
The differences between projections illustrate this outlook. The Economic, Sectoral, and Market Research team at Grupo Cibest estimates that the dollar could fluctuate between 3,100 and 3,300 pesos this month. Acciones & Valores, for its part, considers a slightly wider main band, between 3,050 and 3,330 pesos.
Signals from August
To understand what is coming, one must look at what happened in August. Although the peso’s strength prevailed for much of the month, the dollar ended up closing at 3,215 pesos, with a monthly increase of 57 pesos, equivalent to a depreciation of the peso of 1.8 percent.
The movement was far from uniform. The dollar traded between 3,021.50 and 3,252.60 pesos, and most of the correction occurred at the end of the month, pressured by the presentation of the 2027 National General Budget (PGN) and liquidity, which contributed to a depreciation close to 5 percent in the last week.
That episode left a warning for September, which is that even after a very strong appreciation of the peso, the market can change quickly when doubts about public accounts arise or demand for dollars increases.
Acciones & Valores finds another interesting signal. Between August 21 and 28, the dollar rose by 5.43 percent, but their models estimate that variables such as the global dollar, oil, Latin American currencies, country risk, and interest rate differentials explained only a fraction of that jump. This opens the possibility that part of the movement was due to positioning and liquidity factors and not necessarily the start of a new upward trend for the dollar.
Fewer dollars available
The so-called Own Spot Position (PPC), which in simple terms can be understood as the liquid cash in dollars managed by foreign exchange market intermediaries, was considerably reduced during the peso’s appreciation.
Acciones & Valores points out that this position had fallen to about 1.429 billion dollars by August 9. Grupo Cibest estimates that, after subsequent movements, it could be near 800 million, still well below the average of 3.087 billion observed during the year.
This does not mean that there is a shortage of dollars nor does it alone allow anticipating where the exchange rate will move. But it does imply a smaller cushion to absorb sudden changes in buy and sell orders, making it possible for certain movements to be transmitted more strongly to the price.
Purchases by the Issuer
Adding to this scenario is a new player demanding currency: the Banco de la República.
As recalled, the Issuer launched at the end of July a program to accumulate up to 4 billion dollars in international reserves, through options that can only be exercised when the TRM is below its average of the last 20 business days.
In August, the Bank bought 400 million, and Grupo Cibest expects that in September it could maintain a pace close to that figure.
Precision is important, since the awarding of options does not mean an immediate purchase of those currencies. Their execution depends on meeting the conditions established by the Issuer. In fact, September began with the TRM above the 20-day moving average, so the 400 million dollars awarded for the month did not represent an immediate demand for currency.
High rates
One of the great supports of the Colombian currency continues to be the difference between interest rates in Colombia and those in the United States.
Acciones & Valores calculates differentials close to 800 basis points at twelve months. That margin makes strategies known as carry trade attractive, that is, investors bring resources to peso-denominated assets seeking to take advantage of higher yields. As long as that incentive remains, dollar supply can continue entering the market and act as a counterweight against possible devaluation pressures.
But September will have an important test in the United States. Employment and inflation data will be decisive for Federal Reserve decisions and, through that, for the global dollar. Higher US rates for longer could reduce the relative attractiveness of emerging markets.
It will also be necessary to monitor the dollars that may enter through aid and resources from abroad to address the emergency caused by the August 10 earthquake. Grupo Cibest explicitly includes these possible inflows among the factors that could exert downward pressure on the dollar.
The strength of the peso, meanwhile, has two sides for the economy. It benefits importers, travelers, and companies that buy inputs abroad, but it can reduce peso income for exporters and remittance recipients.
María Claudia Lacouture, president of AmCham Colombia, warns, however, that the business discussion cannot focus only on the exchange rate. Added to the revaluation are higher labor costs, overtime, freight, fuels, inputs, and fertilizers, factors that also affect companies’ ability to compete.
Towards the end of 2026, Acciones & Valores’ reading is that September could mark a transition from the strong appreciation previously observed to a much more balanced market.
For the fourth quarter, the firm considers a gradual normalization of the dollar towards the range of 3,300-3,450 pesos more likely, rather than a sustained return below 3,000 pesos or an abrupt jump to 3,500-3,600.
For analysts, September could become the month that allows establishing whether the dollar found a floor after its sharp fall or if the peso’s strength still has room to continue. For now, rates, fiscal accounts, capital flows, Banco de la República purchases, market liquidity, and Fed decisions keep the pulse open.
